Import volumes at major U.S. container ports are expected to remain elevated as retailers continue to bring in goods ahead of increasing tariffs on China and potential trade restrictions on other countries, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
Retailers Brace for Tariff Impact
“Supply chains are complex, and shifting them takes time,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. He emphasized that while retailers are working to diversify supply sources, new tariffs will lead to higher prices for consumers. Retailers have already been frontloading shipments to mitigate potential disruptions, but added warehousing and logistics costs present additional challenges.
Last Saturday, former President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on most Canadian and Mexican imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. While tariffs on Canada and Mexico were suspended for 30 days, the China tariffs took effect immediately, prompting retailers to accelerate import activities.
Potential Impact on Port Activity
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett noted that while Canadian and Mexican tariffs may have a limited initial impact due to most trade occurring via land transport, tariffs on goods receiving final assembly in these countries could lead to shifts in direct maritime imports. Meanwhile, rising costs from tariffs on Asian and European nations may reduce consumer demand and negatively affect port cargo levels.
“At this stage, the situation is fluid, and it’s too early to determine whether the tariffs will be implemented long-term, removed, or further delayed,” Hackett added.
Import Growth Trends
Despite uncertainties, U.S. ports continue to handle high cargo volumes. In December, ports processed 2.14 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), reflecting a 14.4% year-over-year increase and marking the busiest December on record. Total imports for 2024 reached 25.5 million TEU, the highest level since 2021’s record 25.8 million TEU.
Looking ahead, Global Port Tracker projects:
- January: 2.11 million TEU, up 7.8% year over year.
- February: 1.96 million TEU, up 0.2% year over year.
- March: 2.14 million TEU, up 11.1% year over year.
- April: 2.18 million TEU, up 8.2% year over year.
- May: 2.19 million TEU, up 5.4% year over year.
- June: 2.13 million TEU, down 0.6% year over year.
Industry Outlook
The NRF continues to monitor economic conditions affecting retailers, with reports like the Global Port Tracker providing insights into trade flow trends. The full report includes historical data and forecasts for key U.S. ports on the West Coast, East Coast, and Gulf Coast, offering critical insights for businesses navigating the evolving trade landscape.
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